Just like the weekend when thousands of people across the UK and the world were betting on the most historic race in the world, the grand national, the element of luck and poise is now coming into the race for Premier League survival. You are probably all now thinking what is he on about? Well let me explain...
You see the run in towards the end of the season always comes down to three things. Fitness, momentum and simple and pure luck. The five teams which are fighting it out for survival all have to gather up what they have for each of three elements to slog towards a last day survival.
So with that in mind I took a look down the table and what each teams chances are of survival, with the games to come, and how they are shaping up.
15th Aston Villa: Played 33 Points 35
Its weird to see Villa down in 15th and struggling. Not two years ago they were on the verge of braking into the top four. But having lost Martin O'Neil and a host of their best players, they have managed to found themselves consistently winning. Couple that with a new manager and many of his first team players injured, it doesn't really add up to make another good season.
The one thing you can say is that Villa have a head start on everyone else and are six points clear of safety. If they failed to win one of their five remaining games then they would be in danger. But with three home game against Sunderland, Bolton and Tottenham, you would expect them to stay up. Especially if they beat Bolton.
Their fate is in their hands and beating Bolton would probably see them stay up.
16th Wigan Athletic: Played 34 Points 34
Its funny how for long parts of this season we have looked down and out. But having beat three if the countries top teams we are now one of the favorites to stay up. That is going to be our major problem if we fail to keep our feet on the ground we could get carried away and not perform.
If we keep going like we have done, then we should be okay and pick up the six points we need to survive. Beating wither Fulham or Newcastle United will be a must to keep the day light between us and the bottom. While playing Blackburn and Wolves in the last two games will be massive six points, that is if we fail to pick anything else up.
It is still close for Wigan, we just have to keep going though.
17th Queens Park Rangers: Played 34 Points 31
Not many people gave them a chance, as like us they had to face Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United two of which games they won. Sound familiar. They now have to face Tottenham, Chelsea, Stoke and Manchester City. They have some confiedence, although following defeat at the weekend it has deflated a bit, but Mark Hughes won't let them give up.
It comes down to can they get points against the three big sides, and then beat Stoke? If they do, they are in with a shout of staying up. Tottenham this weekend will be a hard fixture, as they will look to bounce back from losing to Chelsea. While facing Chelsea the following week is likely to see them face a weaker side as Chelsea will rest players for the following weekends cup final.
18th Bolton Wanderers: Played 32 Points 29
After the season they had last year. Not many people would have expected them to be in the bottom three this time around. But they have been unable to score consistently since Christmas, and are now paying the price. If they win their two games in hand, then they will be on the right path to staying up, and with the easiest run up of the lot of us.
They are the odds on favorites to stay up. But the top dogs don't always do so well. Beating Aston Villa will be crucial, along with their three remaining home games against West Brom, Swansea and Tottenham. Win them and they will have a good shout of staying up
19th Blackburn Rovers: Played 34 Points 28
Rovers looked out of it end of March. But having not won a game in the last five has seen them slide right down the table. That rot could very likely continue unless they buck their ideas up and start playing there brand of agressive attacking football. That said they do have a hard last four games.
They entertain Norwich this weekend before going to face Tottenham. If they don't win either of those two games, then they could already be down by the time they come to face us at Ewood Park on the 7th of May. That game could well be a decider and could relegate the losing team, if things fall that way. While having to go to Chelsea to stay up on the final day isn't a very good idea.
20th Wolverhampton Wanderers: Played 34 Points 22
Oh dear. It started so well for them. But having not won a game since the 4th Febuary hasn't helped them, and they have slowly but surely slipped to the bottom of the table where they are likely to remain unless they can win all four of their remaining games.
They face Manchester City at home this weekend. If they were to win or even get a point in the game, then they could gain the confidence needed to stay up. But even then they have three more hurdles to pass, the next being a game away at Swansea where the Swans have been strong. Followed by a home tie against a resurgent Everton. Before final say show down at Wigan.
They could do it. But on their current form, it looks unlikely.
I don't like to do these sorts of things, as you can never totally predict what will happen in football. But this is how I see the bottom of the table finishing.
15th Aston Villa Points 42
16th Wigan Athletic Points 42
17th Bolton Wanderers Points 36
18th Queen's Park Rangers Points 34
19th Blackburn Rovers Points 32
20th Wolverhampton Wanderes Points 23
That's my guess. The reality will most likely be something completely different.